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Abstract ObjectiveSeizure unpredictability can be debilitating and dangerous for people with epilepsy. Accurate seizure forecasters could improve quality of life for those with epilepsy but must be practical for long‐term use. This study presents the first validation of a seizure‐forecasting system using ultra‐long‐term, non‐invasive wearable data. MethodsEleven participants with epilepsy were recruited for continuous monitoring, capturing heart rate and step count via wrist‐worn devices and seizures via electroencephalography (average recording duration of 337 days). Two hybrid models—combining machine learning and cycle‐based methods—were proposed to forecast seizures at both short (minutes) and long (up to 44 days) horizons. ResultsThe Seizure Warning System (SWS), designed for forecasting near‐term seizures, and the Seizure Risk System (SRS), designed for forecasting long‐term risk, both outperformed traditional models. In addition, the SRS reduced high‐risk time by 29% while increasing sensitivity by 11%. SignificanceThese improvements mark a significant advancement in making seizure forecasting more practical and effective. 

This study aims to identify the most significant features in physiological signals representing a biphasic pattern in the menstrual cycle using circular statistics which is an appropriate analytic method for the interpretation of data with a periodic nature. The results can be used empirically to determine menstrual phases. A non-uniform pattern was observed in ovulating subjects, with a significant periodicity (p $<$0.05) in mean temperature, heart rate (HR), Inter-beat Interval (IBI), mean tonic component of Electrodermal Activity (EDA), and signal magnitude area (SMA) of the EDA phasic component in the frequency domain. In contrast, non-ovulating cycles displayed a more uniform distribution (p $>$0.05). There was a significant difference between ovulating and non-ovulating cycles (p $<$0.05) in temperature, IBI, and EDA but not in mean HR. Selected features were used in training an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, using data from at least one cycle of a subject, to predict the behavior of the signal in the last cycle. By iteratively retraining the algorithm on a per-day basis, the mean temperature, HR, IBI and EDA tonic values of the next day were predicted with root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.13 ± 0.07 (C°), 1.31 ± 0.34 (bpm), 0.016 ± 0.005 (s) and 0.17 ± 0.17 (μS), respectively. 

Abstract Electrophysiologic disturbances due to neurodegenerative disorders such as Alzheimer’s disease and Lewy Body disease are detectable by scalp EEG and can serve as a functional measure of disease severity. Traditional quantitative methods of EEG analysis often require an a-priori selection of clinically meaningful EEG features and are susceptible to bias, limiting the clinical utility of routine EEGs in the diagnosis and management of neurodegenerative disorders. We present a data-driven tensor decomposition approach to extract the top 6 spectral and spatial features representing commonly known sources of EEG activity during eyes-closed wakefulness. As part of their neurologic evaluation at Mayo Clinic, 11 001 patients underwent 12 176 routine, standard 10–20 scalp EEG studies. From these raw EEGs, we developed an algorithm based on posterior alpha activity and eye movement to automatically select awake-eyes-closed epochs and estimated average spectral power density (SPD) between 1 and 45 Hz for each channel. We then created a three-dimensional (3D) tensor (record × channel × frequency) and applied a canonical polyadic decomposition to extract the top six factors. We further identified an independent cohort of patients meeting consensus criteria for mild cognitive impairment (30) or dementia (39) due to Alzheimer’s disease and dementia with Lewy Bodies (31) and similarly aged cognitively normal controls (36). We evaluated the ability of the six factors in differentiating these subgroups using a Naïve Bayes classification approach and assessed for linear associations between factor loadings and Kokmen short test of mental status scores, fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET uptake ratios and CSF Alzheimer’s Disease biomarker measures. Factors represented biologically meaningful brain activities including posterior alpha rhythm, anterior delta/theta rhythms and centroparietal beta, which correlated with patient age and EEG dysrhythmia grade. These factors were also able to distinguish patients from controls with a moderate to high degree of accuracy (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.59–0.91) and Alzheimer’s disease dementia from dementia with Lewy Bodies (AUC 0.61). Furthermore, relevant EEG features correlated with cognitive test performance, PET metabolism and CSF AB42 measures in the Alzheimer’s subgroup. This study demonstrates that data-driven approaches can extract biologically meaningful features from population-level clinical EEGs without artefact rejection or a-priori selection of channels or frequency bands. With continued development, such data-driven methods may improve the clinical utility of EEG in memory care by assisting in early identification of mild cognitive impairment and differentiating between different neurodegenerative causes of cognitive impairment. 

Abstract ObjectiveAnterior temporal lobectomy (ATL) is a widely performed and successful intervention for drug‐resistant temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE). However, up to one third of patients experience seizure recurrence within 1 year after ATL. Despite the extensive literature on presurgical electroencephalography (EEG) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) abnormalities to prognosticate seizure freedom following ATL, the value of quantitative analysis of visually reviewed normal interictal EEG in such prognostication remains unclear. In this retrospective multicenter study, we investigate whether machine learning analysis of normal interictal scalp EEG studies can inform the prediction of postoperative seizure freedom outcomes in patients who have undergone ATL. MethodsWe analyzed normal presurgical scalp EEG recordings from 41 Mayo Clinic (MC) and 23 Cleveland Clinic (CC) patients. We used an unbiased automated algorithm to extract eyes closed awake epochs from scalp EEG studies that were free of any epileptiform activity and then extracted spectral EEG features representing (a) spectral power and (b) interhemispheric spectral coherence in frequencies between 1 and 25 Hz across several brain regions. We analyzed the differences between the seizure‐free and non–seizure‐free patients and employed a Naïve Bayes classifier using multiple spectral features to predict surgery outcomes. We trained the classifier using a leave‐one‐patient‐out cross‐validation scheme within the MC data set and then tested using the out‐of‐sample CC data set. Finally, we compared the predictive performance of normal scalp EEG‐derived features against MRI abnormalities. ResultsWe found that several spectral power and coherence features showed significant differences correlated with surgical outcomes and that they were most pronounced in the 10–25 Hz range. The Naïve Bayes classification based on those features predicted 1‐year seizure freedom following ATL with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.78 and 0.76 for the MC and CC data sets, respectively. Subsequent analyses revealed that (a) interhemispheric spectral coherence features in the 10–25 Hz range provided better predictability than other combinations and (b) normal scalp EEG‐derived features provided superior and potentially distinct predictive value when compared with MRI abnormalities (>10% higher F1 score). SignificanceThese results support that quantitative analysis of even a normal presurgical scalp EEG may help prognosticate seizure freedom following ATL in patients with drug‐resistant TLE. Although the mechanism for this result is not known, the scalp EEG spectral and coherence properties predicting seizure freedom may represent activity arising from the neocortex or the networks responsible for temporal lobe seizure generation within vs outside the margins of an ATL. 

Abstract ObjectiveThe factors that influence seizure timing are poorly understood, and seizure unpredictability remains a major cause of disability. Work in chronobiology has shown that cyclical physiological phenomena are ubiquitous, with daily and multiday cycles evident in immune, endocrine, metabolic, neurological, and cardiovascular function. Additionally, work with chronic brain recordings has identified that seizure risk is linked to daily and multiday cycles in brain activity. Here, we provide the first characterization of the relationships between the cyclical modulation of a diverse set of physiological signals, brain activity, and seizure timing. MethodsIn this cohort study, 14 subjects underwent chronic ambulatory monitoring with a multimodal wrist‐worn sensor (recording heart rate, accelerometry, electrodermal activity, and temperature) and an implanted responsive neurostimulation system (recording interictal epileptiform abnormalities and electrographic seizures). Wavelet and filter–Hilbert spectral analyses characterized circadian and multiday cycles in brain and wearable recordings. Circular statistics assessed electrographic seizure timing and cycles in physiology. ResultsTen subjects met inclusion criteria. The mean recording duration was 232 days. Seven subjects had reliable electroencephalographic seizure detections (mean = 76 seizures). Multiday cycles were present in all wearable device signals across all subjects. Seizure timing was phase locked to multiday cycles in five (temperature), four (heart rate, phasic electrodermal activity), and three (accelerometry, heart rate variability, tonic electrodermal activity) subjects. Notably, after regression of behavioral covariates from heart rate, six of seven subjects had seizure phase locking to the residual heart rate signal. SignificanceSeizure timing is associated with daily and multiday cycles in multiple physiological processes. Chronic multimodal wearable device recordings can situate rare paroxysmal events, like seizures, within a broader chronobiology context of the individual. Wearable devices may advance the understanding of factors that influence seizure risk and enable personalized time‐varying approaches to epilepsy care.